As the world gears up for COP29, set to be hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan, the choice of this oil-rich nation as host for a global climate conference feels like an ironic twist of fate. Azerbaijan, historically more associated with fossil fuel extraction than environmental advocacy, now seeks to rebrand itself as a green leader on the global stage. But does this new environmental fervour mask deeper issues at play?

From Azerbaijan’s troubling human rights record to its contested actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, the country’s motivations deserve scrutiny. Is this pivot towards sustainability a genuine effort or a strategic play to bolster its international image?

A Host Under Scrutiny

Criticism of Azerbaijan as a COP29 host is widespread, with many questioning the country’s suitability for such a prestigious platform. Environmental activists and human rights organisations point to the Azerbaijani government’s repressive tactics, including the suppression of free speech and the restriction of civil society’s ability to function openly. These conditions are at odds with the collaborative spirit of climate conferences, where diverse voices are crucial for meaningful progress.

Despite its climate-friendly rhetoric, Azerbaijan continues to quash environmental activism. Civil society groups, critical to holding governments accountable, face intimidation and harassment, making it difficult to trust that COP29 will be an inclusive, open forum for debate. The contradictions are glaring: on the one hand, Azerbaijan promises to facilitate climate finance negotiations; on the other, it’s stifling the discourse needed for transparency and accountability.

However, international pressure could be a force for good. Hosting COP29 puts Azerbaijan under the spotlight, offering the country a rare chance to open its civic space. By relaxing its repressive stance and encouraging diverse participation, Azerbaijan could seize the moment to enhance its credibility and signal a shift towards more progressive governance. Such steps would be more than cosmetic — they could herald a genuine shift in how the country approaches climate diplomacy and internal politics.

Nagorno-Karabakh and the “Greenwashing” Problem

Perhaps the most cynical aspect of Azerbaijan’s climate narrative is its attempt to frame its recent actions in Nagorno-Karabakh as part of a broader environmental initiative. Following a military campaign that displaced over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, Baku is now promoting a vision of a “green” Nagorno-Karabakh, which smacks of opportunism rather than genuine environmental concern.

The displacement of people like Marut Vanyan, an ethnic Armenian who fled the region, stands in stark contrast to Azerbaijan’s green rhetoric. For those forced from their homes, talk of sustainability is cold comfort when the reality is ethnic cleansing and unresolved trauma. While the idea of using COP29 to showcase Nagorno-Karabakh as a model of sustainable development might sound progressive, it risks becoming a disingenuous PR move to cover up geopolitical violence.

Yet, with the right international oversight, the rebuilding of Nagorno-Karabakh could become a template for post-conflict environmental rehabilitation. True sustainability means ensuring that regional initiatives respect human rights, restore ecosystems, and promote long-term peace. To achieve this, the international community must push for transparency in how reconstruction efforts unfold, ensuring that no community is excluded from development benefits.

Energy Dependence: A Missed Opportunity?

Azerbaijan’s pivot to green energy is another critical issue that COP29 will highlight. For a country so heavily dependent on oil and gas, the transition to renewable energy has been slow and hesitant. While Baku is eager to tout its environmental credentials, fossil fuels still dominate its economy, and its long-term commitment to renewables remains unclear.

This reliance on hydrocarbons is not just an economic issue but a political one. Azerbaijan’s wealth and influence on the world stage are tied to its oil exports, making any shift towards a greener future politically fraught. Yet, COP29 offers an unprecedented platform for the country to demonstrate real ambition. Suppose Azerbaijan can set bold domestic climate targets and lay a clear roadmap for reducing its dependence on fossil fuels. In that case, it may convince the world that its environmental pivot is genuine.

Additionally, Azerbaijan could turn COP29 into a platform for fostering regional cooperation on pressing environmental issues. The South Caucasus faces ecological challenges — deforestation, water scarcity, and pollution — that transcend national borders. Baku could use the conference to advance cross-border environmental initiatives, which could, in turn, lay the groundwork for broader regional reconciliation.

The Climate Finance Commitment: Leading by Example?

Climate finance is one of the few areas Azerbaijan could make a meaningful impact. As an oil producer grappling with sustainability, Baku has insights that could be valuable to other nations transitioning away from fossil fuels. Azerbaijan’s pledge to prioritise climate finance during its presidency could bridge the gap between developed and developing nations, helping to channel resources to where they are most needed.

But words must be matched by action. The success of this commitment will depend on whether Azerbaijan follows through with concrete measures, such as setting clear targets for carbon reduction and creating transparent mechanisms to track how climate finance is deployed. The international community should hold Baku accountable, demanding both pledges and results.

The Role of Civil Society: A Litmus Test for Progress

A successful COP29 cannot be achieved without the active participation of civil society. Environmental groups, activists, and community leaders have a vital role in holding governments accountable and ensuring that climate action is both inclusive and just. Azerbaijan must rise to this challenge by providing an enabling environment for these voices during the conference and in the following months and years.

This means removing restrictions on NGOs, allowing for peaceful protest, and ensuring that activists can work without fear of reprisal. Can COP29 be a credible platform for today’s urgent climate discussions by fostering open dialogue?

A Fork in the Road

The world is watching Azerbaijan. As the country approaches the global climate spotlight, it faces a choice: use COP29 as a platform for greenwashing or seize the moment for real change. The conference’s success will depend on whether Azerbaijan embraces transparency, inclusivity, and genuine climate leadership.

At the same time, we must be open to the possibility of transformation. History has shown that unexpected alliances and unforeseen progress can emerge from even the most challenging contexts. Perhaps Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29 will be one such moment, where a country on the periphery of the climate movement takes its place as a leader in global sustainability.

For Azerbaijan, COP29 is more than a stage to perform on; it’s an opportunity to carve out a new future. The international community, civil society, and environmental activists must keep the pressure on — ensuring that the outcome of COP29 is not just more promises but real progress towards a sustainable and just world.