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	<title>University of Texas Southwestern - Medika Life</title>
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		<title>Dallas UT Southwestern Paints an Ugly Picture for Covid Projections</title>
		<link>https://medika.life/dallas-ut-southwestern-paints-an-ugly-picture-for-covid-projections/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Jeff Livingston]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Aug 2021 11:12:49 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Coronavirus]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>UT Southwestern Covid-19 projections indicated cases are likely to get worse unless we improve vaccination rates and employ basic mitigation strategies.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://medika.life/dallas-ut-southwestern-paints-an-ugly-picture-for-covid-projections/">Dallas UT Southwestern Paints an Ugly Picture for Covid Projections</a> appeared first on <a href="https://medika.life">Medika Life</a>.</p>
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<p>This week was “Meet the Teacher” Night in Dallas and Tarrant county. When parents arrived for this annual event, excitement and anxiety filled the air. Parents are concerned about sending their children to school amidst the dramatic rise in North Texas Covid-19 cases caused by the Delta Variant.</p>



<p>For several weeks experts warned us of rising Covid-19 Delta Variant cases sweeping across North Texas. The Delta variant, SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta), was first identified in India in late 2020. This strain rapidly spread worldwide and is now the dominant variant in the United States, including Texas.</p>



<p>The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">CDC</a> reports that the Delta variant accounts for 93% of current US Cases. The Delta variant is the most contagious so far. It passes easily and quickly from person to person. Children also catch the delta variant at a higher right than the original Covid-19 virus. A mutation in the spike protein makes the virus more “sticky.” It is more contagious and spreads in children faster than the original Covid-19 strain.</p>



<h4 class="wp-block-heading">All Texans want children back in school, but we disagree on how to do it&nbsp;safely.&nbsp;</h4>



<p>Governor Abbot, who typically advocates for local control, has switched gears and taken a top-down approach. The Governor’s May <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-issues-executive-order-prohibiting-government-entities-from-mandating-masks" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Executive Order</a> mandated no mask mandates. Abbott took control away from superintendents and consolidated his power in Austin.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Parents in Dallas and Tarrant County are faced with tough decisions. How do parents send their children to school safely in the middle of a North Texas Covid surge?&nbsp;</p>



<p>So far, <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2021/08/10/out-of-control-dallas-county-reports-3270-coronavirus-cases-in-3-day-total/?utm_source=pushly" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">52,555</a> Texans have lost their lives to Covid-19. Many people are still in the mindset of “<em>this won’t happen to me.</em>” Now is the time to shift our thinking and face reality in our communities.</p>



<p>The University of Texas Southwestern, located in Dallas, provides updated data to help parents guide their decisions. The medical school publishes publically available projections an epidemiological model.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Three weeks ago, I had zero patients with Covid-19. This weekend I cared for seven pregnant patients with the virus. The three local hospitals where I work are full of patients in the ICU.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The UT Southwestern data demonstrates the exact rise that I am seeing working as a local physician. The projections for the next few weeks are alarming.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img data-recalc-dims="1" fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="696" height="519" src="https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=696%2C519&#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="wp-image-12903" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=1024%2C764&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=300%2C224&amp;ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=768%2C573&amp;ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=150%2C112&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=696%2C519&amp;ssl=1 696w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?resize=1068%2C797&amp;ssl=1 1068w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-2.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" /><figcaption>Chart CC UT Southwestern <a href="https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/about-virus-and-testing/forecasting-model.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Forecasting Model&nbsp;</a></figcaption></figure>



<p>UT Southwestern is projecting a substantial increase in the number of hospitalizations over the next few weeks. Hospital admissions are up 99% in two weeks and 346% in the past month.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Check out the blue line in the chart. The blue line is the estimate of hospitalizations for the next three weeks. If cases continue at this pace, we will be dangerously close to surpassing available hospital capacity in Dallas and Tarrant County.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In our hospitals, more young people are coming in with severe Covid infections requiring hospitalizations. UT Southwestern data reports that people under 65 represent the largest share of hospitalizations. &nbsp;</p>



<p>The data also shows the overwhelming majority of patients with severe disease requiring ICU care are unvaccinated people.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The UT Southwestern projections also show the people of Dallas and Tarrant County have the power to change the course of the virus.&nbsp;</p>



<p>In this chart, the data scientists show the effect of basic mitigation strategies. If we increase the rate of vaccination locally and keep our masks on, we can save lives.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The orange line shows what happens if we do nothing different. The green line shows how quickly we can make a substantial difference by covering our faces and getting as many people a life-saving Covid-19 vaccine as possible.&nbsp;</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" width="696" height="530" src="https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=696%2C530&#038;ssl=1" alt="" class="wp-image-12902" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=1024%2C780&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=300%2C229&amp;ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=768%2C585&amp;ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=150%2C114&amp;ssl=1 150w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=696%2C530&amp;ssl=1 696w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?resize=1068%2C814&amp;ssl=1 1068w, https://i0.wp.com/medika.life/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/image-1.png?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 696px) 100vw, 696px" /><figcaption>Chart CC UT Southwestern <a href="https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/about-virus-and-testing/forecasting-model.html" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">Forecasting Model</a></figcaption></figure>



<p>There are three FDA-approved vaccines for Covid-19. The two messenger RNA vaccines from Moderna and Phizer offer 95% protection against Covid-19. The Covid-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna use messenger RNA (mRNA). A single strand of mRNA delivers instructions to human cells to produce an antibody against the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.</p>



<p>The Johnson and Johnson’s Janssen vaccine offers 72% protection against infection and 86% against severe disease. The Janssen vaccine uses Adenovirus 26 (AD26) as the vector to deliver DNA material into our cells to provoke an immune response.</p>



<p>The FDA expanded the emergency use authorization for the Pfizer messenger RNA Covid-19 vaccine for kids age 12–15 years old after Phase 3 study data showed the vaccine was 100% effective in preventing Covid-19 in this age group.</p>



<p>None of the vaccines contain a live virus. One can not catch Covid-19 from a vaccine. The vaccines do not enter the nucleus of the cells and do not alter our DNA.&nbsp;</p>



<p>The Covid vaccines are not linked to <a href="https://medika.life/experts-say-covid-19-vaccine-is-not-linked-to-miscarriage-or-infertility/">miscarriage or Infertility</a>. Research indicates most pregnant people who contract Covid-19 do well but have an increased risk of <a href="https://medika.life/covid-19-moms-are-at-higher-risk-for-icu-admission-and-complications/">ICU admission</a> and <a href="https://medika.life/covid-19-moms-at-higher-risk-for-preterm-labor-study-suggests/">preterm labor</a>.</p>



<p>The <a href="https://www.acog.org/news/news-releases/2021/07/acog-smfm-recommend-covid-19-vaccination-for-pregnant-individuals" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">American College of Obgyn</a> and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine recommends all pregnant women get a Covid-19 vaccine. The protective antibodies can save women’s lives and help protect the newborn.</p>



<p>Vaccines are available everywhere. They are free. We can help protect children going back to school by increasing vaccination rates.</p>



<p>Children who are 12 years old and older can get their Pfizer vaccine today. Adults can help protect the community by getting any of the three available Covid shots.</p>



<p>Children under age 12 are counting on us to protect them. We can slow the spread of Covid-19 by getting vaccinated.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Protect yourself. Protect others. Protect the children.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Get your shot today.</p>



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<p>The post <a href="https://medika.life/dallas-ut-southwestern-paints-an-ugly-picture-for-covid-projections/">Dallas UT Southwestern Paints an Ugly Picture for Covid Projections</a> appeared first on <a href="https://medika.life">Medika Life</a>.</p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">12901</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>Here Is More Good News for Pregnant Women With Covid-19</title>
		<link>https://medika.life/here-is-more-good-news-for-pregnant-women-with-covid-19/</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dr Jeff Livingston]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Dec 2020 02:10:08 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Babies & Children]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coronavirus]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Patient Zone]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pregnancy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Womens Health]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[antibodies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Coronavirus pregnancy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Covid Pregnancy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Covid-19 and Pregnancy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Covid-19 Antibodies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NIH]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PRIORITY study]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SARS-CoV-2]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[University of Texas Southwestern]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[<p>A new study from shows most pregnant women with Covid-19 do well with low rates of severe complications.</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://medika.life/here-is-more-good-news-for-pregnant-women-with-covid-19/">Here Is More Good News for Pregnant Women With Covid-19</a> appeared first on <a href="https://medika.life">Medika Life</a>.</p>
]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p id="49ed">Pregnant women around the world are scared about catching Covid-19 and passing it on to their babies. Obstetricians, like me, work to protect our patients and keep them safe, but much remains unknown about the novel coronavirus’s effects on&nbsp;<a href="https://elemental.medium.com/what-pregnant-women-need-to-know-about-coronavirus-96cae5eb8401">pregnant women</a>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<a href="https://elemental.medium.com/will-covid-19-moms-be-separated-from-their-babies-dfb06267727e">babies</a>.</p>



<p id="3dff">A new&nbsp;<a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29256?utm_source=For_The_Media&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=ftm_links&amp;utm_term=111920">paper</a>&nbsp;published in the medical journal&nbsp;<em>JAMA</em>&nbsp;offers more encouraging news for pregnant women. Researchers at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas&nbsp;<a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29256?utm_source=For_The_Media&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=ftm_links&amp;utm_term=111920">published a study</a>&nbsp;titled&nbsp;<em>Pregnancy Outcomes Among Women With and Without Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection</em>.</p>



<p id="6b76">The results&nbsp;show that 95% of women who tested positive for Covid-19 during pregnancy had no adverse outcomes. Five percent of infected women experienced severe complications such as pneumonia and respiratory distress.</p>



<p id="2186">This study also showed a low rate of newborn infections (3%) consistent with our previous&nbsp;<a href="https://elemental.medium.com/great-news-for-parents-most-babies-born-to-covid-19-moms-do-well-e4804d024cbf">reporting</a>. Previously published data from the&nbsp;<a href="https://priority.ucsf.edu/">PRIORITY Study</a>(Pregnancy Coronavirus Outcomes Registry) showed&nbsp;<a href="https://elemental.medium.com/great-news-for-parents-most-babies-born-to-covid-19-moms-do-well-e4804d024cbf">babies born to Covid-19-positive women</a>&nbsp;do well with no increase in negative metrics such as low birth weight, difficulty breathing, apnea, or respiratory infections through the first eight weeks of life.</p>



<p id="c3e0">Based on current scientific understanding of Covid-19 infection in pregnancy, there is&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prepare/pregnancy-breastfeeding.html?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fcoronavirus%2F2019-ncov%2Fspecific-groups%2Fpregnancy-faq.html">no evidence at this time</a>&nbsp;indicating pregnant women are more at risk for severe illness from Covid-19 than the general public. In general, viral infections in pregnancy can lead to poor outcomes in mothers and newborns.</p>



<p id="6350">Pregnant women have a suppressed immune system and experience changes in the way the respiratory system functions. These physiological changes are essential but put&nbsp;<a href="https://www.acog.org/clinical/clinical-guidance/practice-advisory/articles/2020/03/novel-coronavirus-2019">pregnant women at a higher risk</a>&nbsp;for respiratory problems when they contract other similar viruses such as MERS, SARS, influenza, or pneumonia.</p>



<p id="903c">This paper from UTSW adds to the growing body of medical evidence that most women who contract Covid-19 will do well. The authors acknowledge the scientific consensus that viral infections place pregnant women at risk but highlight&nbsp;the low number of sufficiently powered, large-scale studies&nbsp;conducted to accurately assess the specific risks associated with SARS-CoV-2. The purpose of this study was to address this gap in scientific research.</p>



<p id="c5df">This large urban county health system’s research compared outcomes in 252 SARS-CoV-2-positive and 3,122 negative pregnant women. The data was collected from March 18 through August 22, 2020. The study population included 2,520 Latinx (75%), 619 Black (18%), and 125 White (4%) women. The statistical analysis controlled for variables such as age, parity, body weight, and other medical conditions.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img data-recalc-dims="1" decoding="async" src="https://i0.wp.com/miro.medium.com/proxy/1%2AIyTWFGr8XFTeYK6AuedPJA.png?w=696&#038;ssl=1" alt="Image for post"/><figcaption>Image: CC&nbsp;<a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29256?utm_source=For_The_Media&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=ftm_links&amp;utm_term=111920">Jamanetwork</a></figcaption></figure>



<p id="923d">The study found SARS-CoV-2 positivity was more common in Latinx women, accounting for 90% of the cases. Latinx women make up 75% of the 12,000 women delivering at UTSW.</p>



<p id="66eb">Thirteen women (5%) developed severe respiratory complications requiring interventions, and one patient developed venous thromboembolism.</p>



<p id="c287">There was no difference in preterm birth rates, preeclampsia, C-section rates, or stillbirth in women with Covid-19. This data is further supportive evidence that pregnant women who test positive for Covid-19 and their newborn babies have a low risk of developing severe symptoms.</p>



<p id="f8bf">This study also evaluated the placenta for evidence of pathological changes. Scientists have been concerned the viral illness could lead to placental vasculopathy and inflammatory infiltrates. Pathologists studied the placentas of patients infected with Covid-19. This study found the majority were not affected by the virus.</p>



<p id="f8ea"><a href="https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/placenta-lacks-major-molecules-used-sars-cov-2-virus-cause-infection">NIH research</a>&nbsp;indicates that in utero mom-to-baby transmission is rare because the placenta is missing key components the virus needs to enter the fetal circulation, namely ACE2 receptors and the TMPRSS2 enzyme. Both the ACE2 receptor and TMPRSS2 are present in the placenta but only in tiny amounts. The low levels likely explain why SARS-CoV-2 is unlikely to cross the placenta from mom to baby.</p>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading" id="07b5">How do pregnant women protect themselves from Covid-19?</h1>



<p id="a415">We all must do our part to prevent the spread of the virus. Pregnant women should follow the same global recommendations:</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>Wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.</li><li>Use hand sanitizer containing at least 60% alcohol.</li><li>Avoid touching your face.</li><li>Practice social distancing.</li><li>Cover your mouth if you cough or sneeze.</li><li>Clean your cellphone and household surfaces.</li><li>Avoid travel.</li><li>Wear a mask when out in public.</li><li>Get your&nbsp;<a href="https://medium.com/beingwell/how-to-protect-your-unborn-baby-from-flu-and-whooping-cough-dee90946c53a">flu shot</a>.</li></ol>



<p id="feb4"><em>Adhikari EH, Moreno W, Zofkie AC, et al. Pregnancy Outcomes Among Women With and Without Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(11):e2029256. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29256</em></p>
<p>The post <a href="https://medika.life/here-is-more-good-news-for-pregnant-women-with-covid-19/">Here Is More Good News for Pregnant Women With Covid-19</a> appeared first on <a href="https://medika.life">Medika Life</a>.</p>
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